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Autopublicação pode se tornar um negócio de $52 bilhões de dólare

A indústria da Autopublicação criou um novo mercado editorial que poderá alcançar 52 bilhões de dólares, valor duas vezes maior que o da indústria tradicional de publicações de livros nos Estados Unidos, de acordo com um novo relatório da empresa de tecnologia de mídia New Publisher House. Para...

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Free: o futuro dos preços é ser grátis

Por bookess | Postado em Novidades | Em 30-09-2010

Tags:, , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

105

O mundo dos negócios vive de ondas, ondas que passam rápido, ditam tendências, rendem alguns milhares ao seu criador e depois se vão. Não que sejam ondas artificiais, na verdade a velocidade da alternância dessas ondas apenas reflete a velocidade do mundo moderno. E hoje quem está na crista da onda, o mais vendido, mais comentado e talvez um dos mais precisos em suas análises é Chris Anderson, autor de A Cauda Longa e que recentemente lançou Free: o futuro dos preços (Elsevier, 2009, 270 p.), seu segundo livro.

Clique abaixo para continuar lendo.

Apesar de a capa do livro, na versão brasileira, fazer de tudo para parecer um livro de auto-ajuda para negócios, citando “gigantes como Google, YouTube e Financial Times”, o autor evita a postura de guru e faz um livro entre o acadêmico e o jornalístico, trazendo entrevistas, dados, episódios históricos e atuais que vão ao encontro de sua tese: os preços no mercado digital estão caindo tanto que logo chegarão a zero, e viveremos uma economia do Grátis. Não aquele grátis do século XX, compre um leve dois, ganhe esse celular e gaste fortunas com ligações, ganhe esse exemplar da revista e assine sem saber um compromisso de assinatura. Não, um Grátis real, como já acontece hoje com o Gmail, o YouTube, o Twitter.

“A ascensão da freeconomics, a economia do Grátis, está sendo abastecida pelas tecnologias da era digital. Da mesma forma que a Lei de Moore dita que o preço de uma unidade de capacidade de processamento em um computador cai pela metade a cada dois anos, o preço da largura de banda e da armazenagem está caindo muito mais rapidamente. O que a Internet faz é integrar os três, combinando as quedas de preço dos três elementos tecnológicos: processadores, largura de banda e armazenagem. Em consequencia, a taxa de deflação anual líquida do mundo on-line é de quase 50%, o que equivale a dizer que o custo do YouTube para divulgar um vídeo hoje cairá para a metade daqui a um ano. Todas as linhas de tendência que determinam o custo de fazer negócios on-line apontam na mesma direção: para zero. Não é de se surpreender que todos os preços on-line avancem na mesma direção.”

Anderson comenta que ao iniciar seu trabalho se deparou com dois tipos de pessoas: as com mais de 30 anos e as com menos de 30 anos. Para os que tinham mais de 30 anos esse negócio de grátis esconde alguma coisa do consumidor e logo o preço será pago. Já para os que tinham menos de 30, o grátis não é nenhuma novidade, não havendo nenhum motivo para se escrever um livro sobre isso. Realmente no mundo digital já estamos nos desacostumando a pagar pelas coisas: jornais caríssimos no mundo real liberam seu acesso, músicas são disponibilizadas aos milhões, bibliotecas abrem grande parte do seu acervo acadêmico, jogos multiplayer sofisticados não cobram um centavo do usuário, softwares são disponibilizados aos milhares, sites permitem a publicação e compartilhamento ilimitados de vídeos e fotos , emails gigantes são oferecidos sem custo algum.

Essa cultura do Grátis não surge de uma súbita boa-vontade dos ricos e poderosos do mundo. Não, há razões técnicas e econômicas para que o Google, por exemplo, ofereça tantos serviços gratuitos na internet: eles querem que você permaneça mais tempo conectado, faça mais buscas e, principalmente, clique mais nos anúncios exibidos em suas ferramentas, ganhando assim mais alguns centavos, que no final do mês se contam aos milhões. E como o custo de armazenamento é muito baixo para a estrutura criada por um gigante como o Google, não há problema algum em oferecer algo Grátis mesmo que você nunca clique em anúncio algum: seu amigo irá clicar, ou o amigo de seu amigo, e por aí vai.

Ou seja, e esse é o ponto central do argumento de Chris Anderson, é possível ganhar dinheiro, e mais dinheiro, com o Grátis. “As pessoas estão ganhando muito dinheiro sem cobrar nada. Não nada por tudo, mas nada pelo suficiente para criarmos uma economia tão grande quanto a de um país de tamanho razoável pelo preço de $0,00”.

O autor traz alguns exemplos históricos e atuais de negócios que conseguiram lucrar a partir do Grátis, começando pelo inventor das gelatinas e por King Gilete, que dispensa apresentações. Em resumo, poderíamos dizer que há quatro modelos principais:

> Subsídios cruzados diretos: quando uma empresa oferece um aparelho de celular porque vai ganhar com as ligações, por exemplo. Esse é o caso clássico do grátis no século XX.

> O mercado de três paticipantes: quando alguém usa o serviço e outro paga, caso clássico da publicidade nos meios de comunicação. Você não paga nada para assistir TV, mas alguém está pagando à empresa em troca de sua atenção no horário comercial. Essa estratégia, que hoje parece óbvia, demorou muito para ser definida como o melhor modelo de negócios para as rádios no seu surgimento, conforme conta bem o autor. E é interessante notar que na internet ela não funciona com a mesma lógica que na grande mídia: aqui em geral as empresas cobram por clique, por resultado, e não um alto valor único pela exibição de um anúncio.

> Freemium: este talvez seja o mais revolucionário modelo de negócios para o grátis: há duas versões do mesmo produto, a versão grátis e a versão paga. Na versão grátis o usuário em geral pode fazer muita coisa, mas se ele estiver muito adaptado ao programa, ou jogo, ou site, talvez ele aceite pagar alguns dólares para ter novas funções ou alguns privilégios. É como se uma danceteria permitisse a entrada grátis para todo mundo, mas cobrasse pela área VIP. Claro que no exemplo da danceteria seria um caos, afinal dois corpos não ocupam o mesmo lugar no espaço, mas como bits não são corpos, na internet o espaço de armazenamento é quase grátis, e é por isso que o Club Penguim, o Hattrick e o Ikariam, por exemplo, podem ser jogados sem pagarmos nenhum centavo.

> Mercados não monetários: qualquer coisa que as pessoas resolvem dar sem expectativa de pagamento. É o caso da Wikipedia. Em geral há uma fundação ou governo por trás para sustentar esse mercado, mas também pode ser apenas uma estratégia de isca: uma corretora de valores pode ter um belo portal com notícias sobre a Bolsa para atrair consumidores e expor seus serviços, por exemplo.

Grandes empresas, as citadas pelo livro, provaram que esses modelos de negócios podem ser mesmo muito lucrativo, pois além de resultado financeiro elas rendem dois dividendos que Anderson reputa como extremamente importantes na era digital: atenção e reputação. Basta vermos o valor de mercado do Facebook e do Twitter, totalmente desproporcional ao que conseguem faturar com seus produtos. Mas o autor apenas insinua, sem entrar em detalhes, que para as pequenas empresas, para os habitantes de sua cauda longa, a situação não é tão simples.

Ocorre que na internet as marcas que lideram seus segmentos acabam sendo quase monopólios, criando empresas gigantescas com as quais é muito difícil concorrer. Conte nos dedos: Microsoft, Apple, Google, Sun, Yahoo, Amazon, eBay, PayPal, Facebook, Twitter e por aí vai. Isso se dá por causa da escala, nesse tipo de negócio quanto mais você puder trabalhar em escala (com milhões de usuários e não milhares), mais diluído ficarão os custos fixos (mais próximos de zero) e a receita daqueles que pagarem serão suficientes para gerar receita, receita essa que permite altos investimentos em pesquisa, desenvolvimento e publicidade, atraindo ainda mais usuários e realimentando o processo.

Não por acaso a última frase do livro é: “os empreendedores da Web precisam inventar não somente produtos que as pessoas adorem, como também produtos pelos quais elas pagarão. O Grátis pode ser o melhor preço, mas não pode ser o único”. Curioso, nesse aspecto, que o próprio livro de Anderson no Brasil não seja disponibilizado gratuitamente. Porque no livro ele cita diversas vezes sua própria experiência, dizendo que a obra está disponível em versão e-book, à venda em PDF ou na versão impressa, porque sua principal fonte de receita são palestras customizadas a determinada empresa ou instituição que queira contratá-lo. Agora, no Brasil, se você acessar a versão do Scrib do livro, em http://www.scribd.com/doc/17135767/FREE-by-Chris-Anderson, verá a antipática mensagem: “Sorry, this content is geographically restricted”.

Mais do que atrapalhar os argumentos do próprio livro de Anderson, essa estratégia mostra como nossas editoras estão despreparadas para lidar com o mercado digital, agindo como as jurássicas gravadoras de CDs e DVDs, insistindo em manter indústrias físicas centradas em meia dúzia de privilegiados e dificultando o surgimento de um mercado digital amplo e diversificado. Mas isso é outra história que abordarei em nova coluna.

Fonte: http://ospalding.blogspot.com/

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